Issue #44: Some Non-Tariff Related News

There is no sugar coating it. This week was a tough week for retail. Depending on how the policies implemented shake out this week, it could be a temporary downward blip for retail, or one of the most challenging weeks retail has seen, leading to a tough period. Last week, President Trump implemented tariffs on specific items from 185 countries and a flat 10% tariff on all goods entering the United States. The market reaction has not been positive, to say the least, with the S&P 500 down almost 12% so far this month.

Here is how the stock of some of the top retailers/retail adjacent have shaken out:

• Walmart - Down 12%

• Target - Down 16%

• Home Depot - Down 7%

• Lowe’s - Down 8%

• Amazon - Down 15%

• Costco - Down 11%

• Doordash - Down 9%

• TJX - Up 1%

• Uber - Down 14%

• VIX (measures volatility in the stock market) - Up 82%

However, in Retail Is Not Dead?, the goal is to cover retail from a slightly different perspective. When everyone is talking about tariffs, I want to share some other things going on in retail. Once the policies are finalized, I will probably write further on the subject, but for now, I wanted to share three positive stories I came across this week. Retail is Not Dead!

A Flurry of Restaurant CPG Launches

All the way back, in Issue #3, I wrote about the balance of restraunts between focusing on its in-store traffic, and launching a CPG brand. At that moment, Crumbl was launching a CPG product and having to balance that trade off. For most organizations, launching a CPG product once they hit scale relative to its business can be a big boon. Just look at the popularity of Chick-fil-A sauce in stores. Clearly, other brands have seen this working, and are deciding to get involved as well. Zucker’s, the NYC bagel restaurant, launched par-baked frozen bagels, all you have to do is heat them up. Popeyes, the fast food chicken chain, bottled its sauces and launched it in grocery stores across the country. Finally, Dutch Bros, the coffee chain, launched canned coffees that will be coming out in 2026. It will be exciting to follow along and see which succeed. What are some of your favorite restaurant CPG products?

Dishoom Opening NYC Location

Last summer, Dishoom, a popular Indian restaurant in the United Kingdom, did a pop-up in NYC. Dishoom is well known for its curry as well the atmosphere in the restraunts. It seems like the pop-up went well, because this week it was announced that Dishoom is opening a NYC location. This location will be the 14th location, and its first outside the United Kingdom. The plan is to open the NYC location in 2026, and it seems like locations in Boston, Chicago, and DC could be soon to follow. This opportunity just further highlights the opportunity with pop-ups. Test, learn, and iterate before your permanent location to set yourself up for success. You don’t have to put down much capital, but can learn what is the best path forward. I am excited to follow along the development, as well as taste it when it opens!

Adgile Launches Video Game Ads

Ever seen a large truck around with an advertisement for a brand, in particular in NYC for food CPG brands? Chances are that Adgile was involved in making it happen. Adgile connects brands looking to advertise with delivery trucks to put ads on the trucks. It’s a win-win for both parties. Distributor trucks get incremental revenue,e and brands get to advertise in hard-to-access areas. Typically, most of these advertisements have been in the real, physical world. However, that changed this week when Adgile announced that it is partnering with the makers of Grand Theft Auto (GTA), to offer a similar service. I am skeptical that it will be a major revenue generator, but I love the idea as a brand awareness play and a way to very clearly show people what they are doing. Interestingly, Adgile is one of 14 companies tapped by GTA to help monetize in the game.

• Summary: From the team behind Chip City, a cookie chain with 45 locations, comes Somedays Bakery, a bakery and coffee shop serving very high-end pastries. Located in NYC, it has gone viral from a mix of unique and quality products

• My Take: Most high-end bakeries are a couple of locations at most, as it is very difficult to scale that production quality. There is, however, an opportunity in the market for someone to create a national chain with super high-quality pastries. Unlike Tatte, which has a broader menu, I am excited about Somedays because of their low operating costs and very specific offering.

• Founder(s): Peter Phillips, Dion Vangelatos, Eddie Mamiye, Arlander Brown

• Funding: Unknown

• Number of Locations: 2 in Queens (1 opening soon in NJ)

• Social Media Following: 27k on Insta, 300 on TikTok

Additional Links:

1. Square is profiling local restaurants, what makes them successful, and what broader trends are emerging (read more here)

2. Asian supermarket chain T&T Is Opening in SF, taking over a building that has been empty since Best Buy vacated the space in 2017 (read more here)

3. Protein Bar & Kitchen, a better for you fast casual restaurant, is opening 3 locations in Indianapolis (read more here)

4. Chef Robitics raised $43M to speed up its timeline for robotic food assembly deployments (read more here)

5. Guess is closing underperforming stores (read more here)

6. NRF expects lower consumer spending for the rest of 2025 (read more here)

7. A deep dive into co-working space Fabrik as it adds additional locations (read more here)

8. Solo dining is on the rise (read more here)

9. Urban areas are a challenge for casual chains like Applebees (read more here)

10. Sweetgreen is switching up its loyalty program, using points based system instead of tiers (read more here)

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