Issue #73: Olive Young Enters The US

Olive Young Enters The US

Despite recent economic headwinds, one category that has been impacted less than others in avoiding spending pullback is the beauty, cosmetics, skin care, etc space. With the rise of social media and more of a focus on self-care, Gen Z has been obsessed with these types of products. According to Piper Sandler, Gen Z consumers are spending $374 per year on beauty, up more than 10% compared to last year. Additionally, men's spending in this category has grown, helping boost the total market size. From 2022 to 2024, according to one study, Gen Z saw an increase in facial skin care usage from 42% to 68%. With Gen Z spending more than prior generations and men utilising more products, these factors have combined to be a boon for the category.

Alongside this trend to spend more on beauty and skin care, another trend has been combining to create an interesting mix. Partially due to social media and partially due to the way content (YouTube, Netflix, etc.) is super accessible now, trends now spread more easily between cities, countries, and continents. In Issue #53, where I profiled the differences and similarities in retail between Europe and the United States, one of the takeaways I touched on was the “convergence of the same”. Let’s revisit what I saw happening:

While I was focused on the connection between the US and Europe, the connection also applies to Asia. This especially applies in the beauty space, where, in addition to what I mentioned before, the popularity of Asian skincare and beauty products in the United States has led to increased spending on these types of products. Still, skin care is not the only trend to make its way over. Here are some trends that have come over from Asia to the United States over the past couple of years.

As illustrated in the graphics, we have seen trends go from Asia to the United States. Two that stand out compared to some of the others are Korean Skincare and Olive Young, a retailer for Korean Skincare products. This week, to little fanfare, it was announced that Olive Young will be opening its first US store in May 2026 in Pasadena, California, with several other outlets slated to open by the end of 2026. Olive Young is a direct competitor to Sephora, albeit with different products. As depicted in the first graph of the article, Sephora is one of the fastest-growing retailers with Gen Z for their beauty spend. For those unaware, it is probably worth of a deep dive itself. A brief summary - Sephora is a beauty and skin care retailer founded in 1969 by a French-owned company owned by LVMH with 1,636 locations in the US. Most notably, Sephora recently pulled out of South Korea, after being unable to compete with Olive Young. So, who is this retailer that defeated the dominant Sephora? Let’s dive into the history:

• 1953 - CheilJedang Co., Ltd. was founded as a sugar and flour manufacturer as part of Samsung Group

• 1979 - The company rebrands as Cheil Jedang Corporation as it expands into more cooking products, pharmaceuticals, and media

• 1997 - Now named CheilJedang Group, it completes its official separation from Samsung Group

• 1999 - The first Olive Young store opens in Sinsa, with products that focus on “naturally healthy” ingredients

• 2009 - US cosmetics started to be imported to be sold in stores

• 2010 - CJ ONE, its membership service, launches

• 2017 - Surpassed 1,000 stores

• 2018 - Digital price tags are introduced (crazy how far behind the US is on this), and same-day delivery is available

• 2024 - Customers can now buy its products in 1,300 stores or online

Overall, a fascinating history for Olive Young, from starting in the food business to becoming a leading cosmetics retailer. What is clear is that the emphasis has always been on a digital focus, having started in 1999. Not that Sephora is poor digitally, but the original ethos definitely makes a difference. On the product assortment side, it will be interesting to see what the mix looks like compared to other countries. Additionally, if Korean Skincare's popularity starts to die down, how will that impact the United States business? It will be very exciting to follow and an excellent case study for other international retailers looking to enter the United States, which I also expect to be a growing trend over the coming years. What do you think? Will Olive Young be successful?

Black Friday Sees Record High Spend

BFCM. Black Friday Cyber Monday. What started as a predominantly retail-oriented event and has shifted to more of a digital event has taken over the pre-holiday spending. I am going to do a larger deep dive next week, post Cyber Monday, but I wanted to share some quick statistics from Black Friday. Despite challenges in the economy, this was a major spending day. However, this spending could indicate consumers have spent through their budgets, so it will be interesting to see how retail sales are impacted throughout the rest of the holiday season. Here are some of the key statistics:

• US Consumers spent $11.8B on Black Friday 2025, up $1B from last year

• Cyber Monday is projected to be even bigger, with Adobe projecting $14.2B spent online in the US on Monday

• Adobe is projecting a total of $253B in holiday spending this year, compared to $241B in 2024

• The increased revenue may not be from more sales, Salesforce has sales up 3%, prices up 7%, and order volume down 1%

• AI chatbots are having a growing influence in shopping, however, that specific number is hard to quantify

• In-store foot traffic estimates are up 1-4% overall, depending on the source, but department stores are seeing elevated foot traffic compared to general retail

• AI-driven traffic to US retail sites soared 805% compared to last year, driven by the launch of Amazon and Walmart’s retail assistants

• Discount rates are flat so far to last year

David Chang Joins TBPN, Sounds Alarm On Restaurant Industry

For those outside of the core software early-stage startup ecosystem, TBPN may be unfamiliar. TBPN stands for Technology Business Programming Network. It is a daily live video and audio podcast focused on business and technology news, hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays. In its less than a year on air, it has skyrocketed to popularity and has become one of the leading content series in the industry. The focus is early-stage software startups mostly, and it draws on inspiration from traditional business news and sports shows for the style of the show. This past week, they had on Dave Chang, the founder of Momofuku, which is rare for them to have someone focused on retail. I highly recommend listening to the full interview from 1:00:50 to 1:39:51, but I want to share some of his takeaways, which don’t paint the rosiest outlook for the restaurant industry:

• Gen Z drinking less is really going to hurt restaurants’ profit margin, as they make a majority of profit from beverage’s but the share of sales on beverages has shifted from 30% of sales to 10% of sales

• There are too many restaurants (not sure I agree with this one)

• Not everything needs to be the best, we need to appreciate the good

• Drone delivery is not going to work unless it is cooking the food mid-air, food delivery will never be able to be improved unless it improves the heating of food during transit

• Restaurants need to diversify their revenue streams, add in CPG and media where possible

• Food delivery will keep consolidating, but the take rate of the marketplaces in unsustainable

• Need more focus on the SMB restaurants beyond just POS, this is where a majority of the consumption happens (as opposed to fast food or high-end), but not enough attention is given there

• The restaurant industry is too slow to embrace new technologies or change

NYC Membership Club Update

Once again, third places are on the rise. People are in search of a coffee shop, restaurant, gym, membership clubs, sauna, etc. to spend their time. The desire is simple, they want to interact with others in person. In Issue #49, I profiled some of the membership clubs that had opened to fill the void. Everything from a stand-alone, specific membership club, like Zero Bond, to hotel-related clubs, like Aman NYC, to food-related clubs, like Crane Club from Tao Group, and premium grocery stores like Casa Tua. For the most part, these places have succeeded as people are looking for these experiences, plus social media allows everyone to find out about these clubs. These clubs are the perfect type of content to go viral. However, not everyone is successful as the industry thrives. Interestingly, one of the original upstarts in the space, SoHo House, has really struggled as its experience is no longer premium, and members feel the price is not worth it. That has not stopped others from entering the space, however. Here are a couple that stand out so far:

• Kith Ivy - offshoot of the Kith clothing brand, centered around the sport Padel, has a smoothie bar in partnership with Erewhon

• NYLON - digital-only club, uses rotating locations for events, founded as an offshoot of Bustle magazine and media group

• Moss - located in Bryant Park, focusing on commuters, features dining, bars, lounges, a gym, spa, podcast studio, and more

• Commerce Club - located in Grand Rapids, Michigan, in the process of being built

Any others I have missed?

Dick’s Navigates Foot Locker Turnaround

In September, Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it was acquiring Foot Locker. The goal was to revive a lagging brand, gain cost efficiencies via consolidated purchasing, and give Dick’s an alternative (more small-format) model to grow. Now that some time has passed, and the teams are starting to be formalized, the turnaround plan rollout has begun. For starters, as illustrated in the quote from Ed Stack, it starts with the basics. The company is clearing out deadwood inventory, closing unproductive stores with no path to profitability, adding new items to the assortment, improving inventory management, and refreshing the visual merchandising, among other strategies. I really like how they have already implemented an 11-store test around changing merchandise and product, which didn’t end up costing much money. One of the key issues Dick’s has identified, most likely from their own experience in the business, is that shoe shopping can be a very big decision, so the merchandise needs to be organized as such. It is very powerful how some small organizations’ tweaks and clear signage can make a big impact. However, there is still work to do, as financial results have not fully turned around. If this time next year we are still talking about the issues, I am worried this may not be a successful integration. Overall, I am bullish that this partnership will work as it gives Dick’s an entry into small-format and specialized sporting goods retail, but there are definitely many underlying challenges that need to be addressed.

• Summary: Pink Chicken is a clothing store for babies, kids, and moms. It offers premium clothing with bright and bold patterns.

• My Take: The apparel space is at a super interesting inflection point. eCommerce is on the rise, but it seems to be stalling. I like how Pink Chicken has unique products that are set up for success in both online and in-store. Omnichannel is the future!

• Founder: Stacey Fraser 

• Funding: Unknown

• Number of Locations: 11 Locations (NYC, Hamptons, CA, SC, NC, GA, MD, FL, and CT)

• Social Media Following: 137k on Insta, 4.5k on TikTok

Additional Links:

1. King of Prussia Mall outside Philly is seeing rapid growth (read more here)

2. September retail sales rise almost 6%, see growth across all categories (read more here)

3. Family Dollar is now available on DoorDash (read more here)

4. Couche-Tard, the owner of Circle K, is seeing growth via its food products (read more here)

5. Home Depot and Lowe’s lower full-year guidance due to reduced customer spend in the category (read more here)

6. Higher-income consumers are starting to spend more on private-label groceries (read more here)

7. Albertson’s and Chobani partner to allow consumers to purchase from advertisements directly (read more here)

8. On November 20th, Aldi opened 16 stores in one day (read more here)

9. Grocers are starting to roll out more long tail private label products (read more here)

10. What is a warehouse on Black Friday like? (read more here)

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