Issue #80: Overheard At NRF

Before we dive in this week, wanted to give a quick and final plug for Issue #78, where I dove into predictions and trends for 2026. Everything from hydration and fiber to CPG funding opportunities. We are already 5% through 2026 - can’t believe it! Time to turn those predictions into reality.

Overheard^ At NRF (Some More Retail Trend Analysis)

This past week in New York City, the entire retail community, from tiny startups all the way up to the largest public companies, descended on NYC to talk retail. While I did not have the opportunity to actually attend the conference, there were many great events surrounding the conference. Here are some of the thoughts/trends I came away with from the retail world:

Trend #1: Retail Is Built For Voice AI

So much of retail communication is via the spoken word. Back in October, when I dove into the NYC retail AI early-stage startup ecosystem, voice AI was not a major theme of these startups. Instead, it was a part of the puzzle, not the key value proposition. I think that is going to change in a big way in 2026. There are so many ways Voice AI can be better incorporated into retail to make things more efficient. It is not just the retailers who will benefit; it is every part of the ecosystem, from distributors to CPG brands, that will be able to leverage voice AI to cut through the fragmentation in the ecosystem. What are your favorite voice AI companies? Send them over!

Trend #2: CPG’s Say Retail > D2C

Despite all the chatter of whether D2C is back with the success of Athletic Greens, Gruns, Create Wellness, and more, retail is still the main focus for the vast majority of early-stage CPG brands. Unless you are a high-margin supplement like these brands, it just doesn’t make sense to have D2C as the main pillar of your business. Instead, building up retail distribution is the optimal way to go. As you will see later on in this Issue, even the most darling D2C companies eventually make their way to retail. Retail just reaches so many people, logistically can be simpler/more streamlined, and the economics are stronger. Long retail.

Trend #3: Rising Cost of Marketing

Similar to Trend #3, the cost of marketing is drastically rising, especially online. Gone are the days when you could cheaply gather gobs of customers via Facebook. CAC’s are certainly taking a hit. Brands are responding to these challenges in many ways. Some brands are responding by focusing on retail more, some are finding new channels to market to, some are using AI to be more efficient, and many other innovative concepts. However, regardless of what you are doing, capital efficiency and ROI need to be the north star of your actions. CPG brands that do not optimize for these north stars are going to find it much more challenging to sustainably gain customers and investment.

Trend #4: Retail and Distribution Centers Merging

Traditionally, there was a very clear supply chain for retail. From the manufacturer to the distributor, or the distribution center to the retailer, to the customer. However, with the rise in eCommerce, those lines are blurring. On both sides, you are seeing that the traditional retail store and the traditional eCommerce distribution center, neither one fully satisfies the customers’ needs. Instead, you need an omnichannel super center capable of walk-in traffic, delivery, pick-up, and shipping. As discussed last week, this trend is why Amazon is launching a super center. On the other hand, you see Target and Walmart launching robust omnichannel capabilities. All converging together to offer customers the most items with the most fulfillment options at the fastest speeds.

Trend #5: The “K” Shaped Economy

Like anything, when you hear the headlines, all the groups get amalgamated together, even if the trends could be very different depending on who you are talking about. When it comes to the narrative around the economy, I think this is definitely the case as well. This year, it seems like there will be a bigger shift to focus on the different brackets, hence the “K” shape. For the top socioeconomic brackets, the spending power is growing, while for the bottom, it is getting worse. This will definitely be a big conversation going forward.

(^ Author’s Note: these are not actually just things I overheard and repackaged - these are actual original ideas from chatting with those in the ecosystem! The title and overall theme are just inspired by the Goldman Sachs Twitter account with a similar title.

D2C First Brands Launch In Target

The people at NRF were not the only ones focused on retail over D2C this week. Target announced two big retail launches with brands that had been only D2C before. Even when you are that big, retail is generally always the end game. Let’s break down the moves here:

• ButcherBox - Founded in 2015, ButcherBox is a D2C subscription company that ships high-quality meat to you directly. At this point, ButcherBox is doing over $600M in revenue and is fully vertically integrated. I am intrigued that Target was the first retail launch, as I thought it would be Costco or another club. The two companies developed exclusive fresh, not frozen, products that will offer five options for customers looking for the product instantly. It is in a total of 1,463 Target locations. ButcherBox is also available on Target’s third-party marketplace.

• Nara Organics - In 2018, Esther Hallam was not satisfied with the organic options for baby formula, so she spent seven years developing the product. Along the way, she built a community with millions of parents and an app. In July, she launched online, and now the product will be available in Target. It will be available for purchase online and in-store.

Saks Global Declares Bankruptcy

Founded in 1867 in Washington DC, Saks Fifth Avenue has been a staple of the department store world. Since 2013, it has been owned by the Hudson’s Bay Company. More recently, it was spun off into Saks Global, while bringing Bergdorf Goodman and Neiman Marcus into the fold. This week, Saks Global filed for bankruptcy after years of mounting debt, declining sales, and struggling to pay vendors. The stores will remain open for now, but it is most likely that whoever the new owners are will end up closing some stores. Unfortunately, Saks was never able to figure out the eCommerce/D2C world, which is especially needed in the cutthroat apparel market. Plus, the purchase of Nieman Marcus, which required a lot of debt, never really made much sense. A turnaround is always possible, just look at Toys-R-US and Barnes & Noble, but it is tough to see the pathway right now. Don’t count out Amazon, which has done partnerships with Saks in the past.

Shopify and Google Partner To Announce UCP

Last Sunday night, exciting news broke out. Shopify and Google announced a Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), which they co-developed. What this means is that via chatbot agents, you can now purchase items directly in chatbots. Shopify merchants can sell directly in AI Mode in Google Search and the Gemini app. Since this is a protocol, there are also opportunities to sell within Microsoft Copilot and ChatGPT. The goal of this protocol is to allow any AI agent to connect with any merchant, regardless of who is involved. It will have similar functions to a normal checkout, like discounts, loyalty, and subscriptions, except it will be all through chatbots and agents. For Shopify, the interesting thing here is that they are able to integrate Shopify Payments (which is powered by Stripe) into Google’s ecosystem. A lot of interesting things to unpack here with this partnership.

• Summary: Sukoshi is a retailer bringing Korean skincare, makeup, and more to North America. It mixes everyday products with exciting, trendy products.

• My Take: Korean skincare has exploded in popularity on social media. So much so that some of the top retailers from Korea, like Olive Young, are coming to the United States to compete directly with Sephora. What I like about Sukoshi ihat they were already operating in North America, which could give them a leg up.

• Founder(s): Linda Dang

• Funding: Unknown

• Number of Locations: 14 (13 in Canada, 1 in NYC)

• Social Media Following: 146k on Instagram, 206K on TikTok

Additional Links:

1. About half of consumer spending in the US and the UK is now driven by Gen Alpha (read more here)

2. A deep dive into Beyond Meat’s new protein drink (read more here)

3. Walmart’s new CEO announces a bunch of changes for the leadership team (read more here)

4. Luckin Coffee is opening in NYC, including in my neighborhood (read more here)

5. Cava, the Mediterranean fast casual restaurant, announces the appointment of a new CFO (read more here)

6. What stood out on eCommerce holiday shopping according to Shopify? Creativity. (read more here)

7. Some spicy predictions for Retail in 2026 (read more here)

8. Uber announces partnership with Kroger to be on the app (read more here)

9. The new cool coffee shop in LA is actually just in someone’s backyard (read more here)

10. Macy’s closes its distribution center in Connecticut, plans to close its facility in Oklahoma, and opens a new one in North Carolina (read more here)

Was this forwarded to you? Sign up here.

Have an idea or want to chat? Respond to this email.

Is the email not reaching your inbox? Try this trick.