Issue #67: WFM Retail Trends

Whole Foods Market (WFM) Retail Trends

Each year, Whole Foods Market releases their “Next Big Things“, which is a list of ten trends it expects to be the next big things in the coming year. These trends, as illustrated above, are mostly around specific products and ingredients within those products. The trends are driven by consumer behavior, but are not as directly connected to consumers. Last week, the 2026 report dropped with some very interesting insights. I thought it would be interesting to recap the 2025 report and deep dive into the 2026 trends

Let’s start with 2025, here are the ones they hit the nail on the head, and here are the ones they missed on:

• Hit (Predicted correctly): International Snacking, Crunch: Texture of the Moment, Hydration Hype, Sourdough Stepped Up, Protein Power-Up

• Miss (Did not predict correctly): Ever-Adaptable Dumpling, Tea’s Time, Next-Level Compostable, More-Sustainable Sips, Plant-Based Aquatic Ingredients

50% success rate in my opinion - not too shabby! Starting with international snacking, this trend has been on the rise for a while. At its core, people like international foods, but they are also searching for bolder flavors. That is also where the Crunch and Sourdough come in as well. As Gen Z and even Millennials too, get more spending power, they want more exciting flavors. That is why you see so much excitement around spicy, sour, crunchy, umami, and other flavors. Even the big brands, are getting into it too! Plus, from a wellness POV, Protein and Hydration have been the dominant benefits people are looking for (Fiber next?). In terms of what went wrong, I believe these predictions are a little more niche. Whole Foods definitely has a specific demographic, but these are definitely missing the mass market appeal of some of the correct ones, and probably even miss the Whole Foods customer, too. Still, I think the Dumpling (I mean, who doesn’t like stuffed carbs) and Tea (look at the rise of Matcha) may have been a bit premature. If I were a betting man, I would not bet these would succeed, but I would not be shocked if they do.

Now, let’s take a look at 2026, where, unfortunately, they slimmed it down to only eight selections. Here is how I think they did on their predictions:

• Hit (I think they predicted correctly):  Focus on Fiber, Kitchen Couture, Freezer Fine Dining, Sweet, But Make It Mindful, Instant Reimagined

• Miss (I think they did not predict correctly): Tallow Takeover, Year of the Female Farmer, Very Vinegar

Again, let’s start with the predictions I think will have a major impact across all retailers. Freezer and Instant both come back to the idea that people are looking for elevated convenience. Great food that doesn’t take too much time to make. I am super bullish on Frozen food in particular. On the better-for-you front, I think Protein and Hydration will continue to dominate, but I believe another theme will emerge, too. I think it will be fiber, but there are other added better-for-you products that could be beneficial too, that take off due to consumer interest. Finally, mindful sweets and fancy kitchens, these are both trends that have been on the rise already, so I am assuming they are arguing they will explode. For mindful sweets, we have seen items like Tru Fru and Yasso explode in popularity. On the fancy kitchens, with the trends in more open kitchens, the CPG brands you carry are part of your identity. This trend has been especially well captured by brands like Graza and Fishwife. Similar to the 2025 trends that didn’t take off, I think it has more to do with the Whole Foods customer being very different from your average customer.

As a retailer or brand, you have to be very careful about following trends, because after all, many end up dying down. Still, when your product fits into something in the zeitgeist, it is super important to capture that momentum and ride the wave. Also, this type of report is a great way to get some PR/buzz about you. If you were a brand or retailer, how would you capitalize on the trends? What trends are you excited about for 2026?

Walmart Joins ChatGPT Integrated Checkout

Last week, in Issue #66, I covered ChatGPT launching an integrated checkout, where users could now purchase items within the ChatGPT ecosystem, without having to leave it. Some of the people announced right away as partners where consumers could purchase their were Uber, Shopify, and Etsy. Now, the largest retailer has entered the game. This week, Walmart announced that it is joining the party, too. Now, consumers can purchase from Walmart and Sam’s Club within the ChatGPT ecosystem, with full access to online shipping and delivery orders. While Uber covered some of the use cases that Walmart does, bringing the retailer directly into the ecosystem makes a lot of sense. It makes the economics work better, by removing an intermediary, as well as offering a better customer experience. Given how Walmart historically operates, it is interesting to see learning from its past mistakes with a lack of distribution infrastructure investment, which Amazon beat them with by being the first mover in the space. With regard to AI, Walmart has moved quickly, boldly, and assertively, especially compared to other retailers. For other retailers, luckily, there are many chatbots to partner with, but everyone, regardless of the size, needs an AI strategy.

Piper Sandler Releases Results Of Semi-Annual Teen Survey

Twice a year, Piper Sandler, an investment bank, surveys teenagers to understand their behavior as consumers. This started 25 years ago and has consistently been tracked since, giving some very interesting insights into consumer behavior from a Teen POV. Here are some insights that stood out to me:

• Annual spending dropped 6% YoY and 1% compared to the last 10 years average

• Clothing spending is slightly up, and footwear spending is flat after recent declines

• 54% say Amazon is the top shopping website, 11x compared to the next highest websites, Shein & Nike (5%)

• Beauty spend declined less than overall spend (2%)

• Sephora is the top beauty retailer, then Ulta, then Target (I wonder how the dissolution of Target and Ulta’s partnership will affect this ranking)

• Chick-fil-A is a strong number one spot as the preferred chain restaurant among teens, while McDonald’s and Chipotle Mexican Grill rank number two and three

• Adam Sandler is the top celebrity

What trend stands out to you?

Ramp x The Office Popup

Brian Baumgartner might be the most famous accountant in the world, and he has never been a real accountant a day in his life. If the name sounds familiar, that is because Brian played Kevin Malone on the US reboot of The Office. In that role, he played a jovial accountant who was not very good at accounting (but made a MEAN chili!). The Office has had a comeback recently (besides being an evergreen, amazing show), the extended version is being launched on Peacock, and the new pseudo spin-off, The Paper launching too. As a result, The Office is back in the cultural zeitgeist. As with anything dominating the zeitgeist, brands are getting involved - with mixed success. My favorite so far has been Ramp, the B2B expense management fintech startup. They took over a park in Flatiron, NYC, and built a glass box where people could watch Kevin process receipts to see who was faster, him or Ramp software. Alongside, there were tons of content creators and clippers that were making this go viral. Great content + tie-in to the companies product (not just visibility, visibility for Ramp) + excellent distribution process = major content win.

• Summary: 7Brew is a drive-thru chain focused on beverages, in particular coffee and energy drinks. This year, it has skyrocketed in location count, adding 180 in one year already. Despite being only beverages, it does $2M in AUV.

• My Take: It is really impressive to see 7Brew hit the revenue and location count it has with no food. I am very curious to see when they launch food and how that further propels success. Plus, they just opened a store within a Walmart. Although bigger than I typically highlight, 7Brew is only in its early days.

• Founder(s): Ron Crume

• Funding: Unknown

• Number of Locations: 500 (just hit that mark this week)

• Social Media Following: 628k on Instagram, 368k on TikTok

Additional Links:

1. Grocer Lidl plans rapid US expansion, including in urban areas (read more here)

2. How a gluten-free bakery expanded from a small retail location to having its product carried in over 750 locations (read more here)

3. Aldi is now available on the Uber Eats platform (read more here)

4. Bombas, the sock company, opened a flagship location in NYC and is now available in Target and DSW (read more here)

5. Retail AI is not just happening in New York (read more here)

6. How does a customer leaving a review impact re-order rate? How does a response to that review impact re-order rate? (read more here)

7. Saks Q2 revenue disappoints as it deals with inventory issues (read more here)

8. REI to close 3 stores in 2026 (read more here)

9. September retail sales are a mixed bag - overall sales up but units down in many categories, which could be do to inflation or people trading up to more value sizes (read more here)

10. Albertsons aims for 30% private label penetration (read more here)

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