Issue #74: The Best BFCM Ever?

The Best BFCM (Black Friday Cyber Monday)Ever?

$137 Billion. That is how much US consumers spent online from Nov 1 - Dec 1 this year, which is up 7% YoY, according to Adobe. Both Black Friday and Cyber Monday were up. Plus, retail did not suffer; instead, it thrived. Roughly 130M consumers shopped in-store, up 3% YoY. However, all that spending came at a cost, with the Buy Now Pay Later payment method hitting an all-time high. Consumers spent just over $1B with the payment method on Cyber Monday, up 3% YoY. A lot to break down - I am going to be focusing on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Retail traffic throughout the weekend.

Black Friday

First, let’s recap Black Friday from Issue #73. As a quick refresher, here is what I saw from a numbers standpoint:

• US Consumers spent $11.8B on Black Friday 2025, up $1B from last year

• Cyber Monday is projected to be even bigger, with Adobe projecting $14.2B spent online in the US on Monday

• Adobe is projecting a total of $253B in holiday spending this year, compared to $241B in 2024

• The increased revenue may not be from more sales, Salesforce has sales up 3%, prices up 7%, and order volume down 1%

• AI chatbots are having a growing influence in shopping, however, that specific number is hard to quantify

• In-store foot traffic estimates are up 1-4% overall, depending on the source, but department stores are seeing elevated foot traffic compared to general retail

• AI-driven traffic to US retail sites soared 805% compared to last year, driven by the launch of Amazon and Walmart’s retail assistants

• Discount rates are flat so far to last year

Overall, Black Friday was a success, but my concern was that people may have been shifting their budget to earlier in the season/week to take advantage of the deals. Based on the success of Cyber Monday and Retail, that does not seem to be the case. In fact, the NRF predicts holiday shopping, both in-store and online, across November and December, will surpass 1 Trillion in spend for the first time ever. In the NRF research, they found consumers have only spent 47% of their budget so far. So much for concern about the budget!

Cyber Monday

Now, let’s dive into Cyber Monday, and here are some key statistics:

• Consumers spent just over $14B, up 7% YoY, and peaked between 8 PM and 10 PM

• Electronics saw the biggest discounts, with an average of 31% off the list price

• AI-driven traffic to retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link from an AI platform) increased by 670%

• 3.6% of revenue was driven by Social Media (excluding influencers and affiliates), up 56.5% YoY

• Almost 58% of revenue came from a mobile device, up 8% YoY, and a massive growth from 2020, when only 41% came from a mobile device

• 57% of the spend was on electronics, apparel, and furniture, with electronics seeing the largest growth YoY

What stands out to me is twofold. First, how dominant certain categories are within this time frame. For retailers and brands that do not sell those types of products, it begs the question: how do you participate in the moment? There is no easy answer to this question; you probably want to have some sort of presence or partnership, but it could be a tough time to stand out. Second, it is interesting to see how much mobile purchasing has increased in tandem with the types of products that people purchase. I would think that these would be more in-person or larger screen purchases, but the data says otherwise!

Thanksgiving Weekend Retail

Last, but very much not least, let’s dive into the retail numbers. After all, this would not be a retail-focused newsletter without discussing how retail was impacted during the busiest shopping time of the year. Let’s dive into the numbers:

• 90% of Target’s physical stores had a line, with an average of 150 shoppers waiting in line, to claim Target’s gift bags that they gave away to the first 100 shoppers

• Black Friday drew roughly 80M in-store customers, down about 1.4M YoY, but Saturday drew almost 63M customers, up 1.6M YoY, and Sunday saw a record of almost 33M shoppers, up 27% YoY

• The top retail shopping destinations were supermarkets (47% of shoppers) and department stores (40% of shoppers)

• Retailers, like Target, who gave away free exclusive gifts, succeeded at giving consumers a reason to make the trek to the store

• Department stores saw a rise in traffic, while health and beauty stores saw a decrease in traffic (maybe eComm is hurting health and beauty more than others?)

• Mall of America (MOA) in Minnesota saw a record high 235,000 people visit on black friday, up almost 9% compared to 2024 and up 2% compared to 2019 (2019 had three more hours of operation compared to this year)

• The average MOA customer spent three hours in the mall, higher than the average this year

• Over 30% of MOA tenant survey respondents reported their Mall of America store was the top performing location companywide on Black Friday, with another 20% reporting their MOA store ranked within their companies top five on Black Friday

Despite many proclaiming that retail is dead, as illustrated in the traffic on Black Friday, that is very much not the case. Customers are very much willing to come into the store, especially when you give them a reason to. In Issue #72, we discussed how Target is trying to turn around the business. It still has a way to go, but I saw multiple call-outs that their Black Friday in-store plan was the best of any retail. All they did was give away some tote bags and little gifts - nothing super complicated. As retailers look forward to planning Black Friday 2026, the strategic framing needs to be re-framed. Ask yourself, “What reason are we giving customers to come in person?” If there is no reason, you can expect your performance to disappoint.

McDonald’s Launches New Combo Meal & Skyrockets Foot Traffic

To much fanfare this week, McDonald’s launched the Grinch meal in partnership with Dr. Seuss. The meal features a choice of Big Mac or McNuggests, fries, grinch salt (dill pickle seasoning), a fry shaker bag, a drink, and a pair of grinch-themed socks. This meal first debuted in Canada in 2024, and after its success there, it was brought to the United States. Additionally, the dill pickle seasoning has been available outside the United States, but has never been available here. There is so much to love about this collaboration - great partnership, testing in another market first, leveraging existing infrastructure, and more! From an operations and product development standpoint, all that is great, but at the end of the day, customers’ success is what matters. According to one franchisee, they were expecting it to do well, and still ended up selling more in a day than they thought they would sell in a week. No official numbers are out yet, but it is clear this meal was a success from a sales, foot traffic, and social media perspective. It will be exciting to follow along!

Noodles & Co Under Pressure From Activist Investors

Despite seeing strong same-store sales growth compared to other fast casual restaurants, Noodles & Co is also seeing declines in profitability and margin. In 2024, it closed 20 restaurants, and in 202,5 it will close at least 30 restaurants, leaving it with about 350 units remaining. This led Galloway Capital Partners, an activist investor, to acquire a 6% stake in the company. Galloway’s push is to sell off about 200 locations, which would generate an estimated $60M, to pay off some of the companies high-interest debt. This strategy is modelled after what Supercuts has done to try and turn around. Overall, the plan makes sense, but regardless it will be challenging to turn the company around. There is a finite cap on the frequency of noodle purchases, especially as customers become more health and value-conscious. For turnaround options, I have seen most of the focus on financial engineering, which makes sense and is important, but I think they need to look at the product mix and assortment, too.

Additional Links:

1. How are hypebeast grocers, like Meadow Lane, taking over (read more here)

2. A deep dive into the person in charge of the items you are seeing in Whole Foods (read more here)

3. Walmart has announced its new CEO, who will be charged with leading Walmart into the AI era (read more here)

4. Instacart introduces new AI features for grocers of all sizes (read more here)

5. Ashley’s Furniture is partnering with Perplexity for AI purchases (read more here)

6. Amazon is testing fast grocery delivery in Philadelphia and Seattle (read more here)

7. The Vitamin Shoppe names new leadership in inventory planning and digital marketing (read more here)

8. Dollar General sees sales rise as customers are looking for more value (read more here)

9. Saucy, a spin-off concept from KFC, is opening three more stores (read more here)

10. Jersey Mike’s hires a new CFO (read more here)

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